Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Iceland
  • Luxembourg
  • Thailand

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,119$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(246 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,093.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,093.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $433$ on 2020-05-06

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,060$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,260.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,260.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,805$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,800.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,555$ on 2020-05-06

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $214,457$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(210,795.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,684$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,528$ on 2020-05-06

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,228,603$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,282,776.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,282,776.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $73,431$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,399.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(76,399.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $965,262$ on 2020-05-06

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,359$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,362.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(212,362.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,150$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,678.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,678.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $171,275$ on 2020-05-06

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,918$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,138.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,903$ on 2020-05-06

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $168,162$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,941.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,941.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,275$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,418.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,418.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,987$ on 2020-05-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Iceland recovered 96%
Luxembourg recovered 90%
Thailand recovered 88%
New Zealand recovered 85%
Korea, South recovered 85%
Austria recovered 85%
Australia recovered 84%
Switzerland recovered 82%
Malta recovered 80%
Germany recovered 71%
Niger recovered 67%
Croatia recovered 66%
Andorra recovered 63%
North Macedonia recovered 60%
Djibouti recovered 56%
Uzbekistan recovered 53%
Tunisia recovered 51%
Denmark recovered 49%
Uruguay recovered 45%
Israel recovered 45%
Costa Rica recovered 42%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
Turkey recovered 38%
Malaysia recovered 38%
Slovakia recovered 37%
Czechia recovered 35%
Spain recovered 33%
Cuba recovered 25%
Italy recovered 15%
Romania recovered 3%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,970$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,363.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,363.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,266.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,266.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $404$ on 2020-05-06

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(366 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-05-06

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,851$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,699.8}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,699.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(15.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(95.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-05-06

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,989$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,909.3}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,909.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-06

Best fit exponential: \(21.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 10.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $173$ on 2020-05-06