Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,119$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(246 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,093.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,093.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $433$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,060$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,260.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.4)}}\) (asimptote \(29,260.5\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,805$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,800.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,555$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $214,457$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(210,795.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,684$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,528$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,228,603$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,282,776.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,282,776.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73,431$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,399.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(76,399.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $965,262$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $202,359$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,362.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(212,362.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,150$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,678.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,678.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171,275$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,918$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,138.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,903$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $168,162$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{162,941.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(162,941.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,275$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(615 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,418.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,418.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,987$ on 2020-05-06